↑ Jul '25 | 4.55 | +5 1/4
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↑ Jul'25 | 10.69 1/4 |+17 1/2
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↑ Nov'25| 10.50 1/4 |+19 3/4
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↓ Jul' 25 | 5.21 1/2 | -1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST.
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Buy Signals
- Corn – Day 7
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Chicago Wheat - Day 7
- Kansas City Wheat – Extended Day 14
- Meal – Day 7
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During the past 12 months
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Corn had 7 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, 7, and 1 days.
- Chicago Wheat had 8 Buy Signals lasting 29, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 8, and 2 days.
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KC Wheat had 7 Buy Signals lasting 28, 3, 6, 17, 5, 8, and 6 days.
- Meal had 8 Buy Signals lasting 28, 8, 31, 1, 3, 2, 15, and 9 days.
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US and China cutting tariffs temporarily
Soybean surge higher
Corn and wheat in Buy Signals
USDA reports today
The weekend meeting in Switzerland between US and Chinese leaders was successful in that both countries agreed to sharply roll back tariffs against each other. News reports state that the US will roll back tariffs against Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China will roll back their tariffs against US goods from 125% to 10%. The changes will take effect this week and last for 90 days, to allow time for further trade negotiations.
The news increased trade optimism again. The S&P 500 was up +3% and the Nasdaq was up +4% overnight, the Dollar surged to its highest level in a month, and crude prices were up +4%, while gold was down nearly -4%. Bitcoin traded as high as $105,600.
Not surprisingly, soybean prices were sharply higher overnight following news of the de-escalation in the trade war with China. Since soybean prices were in downtrend territory last week, it will take a couple days before soybeans could officially trigger a Sell Signal in our system. But with prices at 3-month highs, the green light is on to make sales today ahead of the major USDA reports due out at 11 am central today.
Trade isn’t projecting any major changes in the soybean supply demand balance sheets, but the US – China trade deal over the weekend could throw a wrench in the demand numbers released today. It will be interesting to see if the USDA adds any commentary to the top of the report addressing this key change, since it won’t be reflected in their data today.
Corn and winter wheat prices are only slightly higher this morning, benefitting little from the news over lower tariffs between the US and China. Our system has active Buy Signals in corn, winter wheat, and meal. Minneapolis wheat prices are challenging recent lows and look likely to trigger a Buy Signal tomorrow.
On this round of Buy Signals livestock producers and buyers should cover their needs for the next 30-60 days. This looks like a good spot for corn and wheat producers to take re-ownership of bushels sold on previous Sell Signals. Give us a call if you would like to discuss strategies for your operation with a Roach Ag broker.
Other
Crude prices were +4% higher overnight on trade news. WTI crude traded back above $63/barrel. Crude, heating oil, and natural gas are all in uptrend territory. Natural gas is in a Sell Signal.
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Cotton and sugar prices both surged higher overnight, putting both markets in uptrends to begin the week. Rice prices continue to sag lower today and appear heading towards a Buy Signal later this week.
President Trump is traveling to the Middle East today for his first major international trip of his second term. Saudia Arabia has pledged to invest $600 Billion in the US over the next four years. President Trump is hoping to increase that number to $1 Trillion. Several CEOs of major US companies such as Citigroup, IBM, and Blackrock will also be in the Middle East this week for a Saudi–US Investment Forum.
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Fertilizer Report
If you missed our Fertilizer Report email on Friday, CLICK HERE to read.
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Equities: Stocks were flat on Friday as Wall Street looked ahead to the weekend trade meeting between the United States and China. Traders appeared willing to let the week wind down without making any major moves. As a result, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were nearly unchanged, and the Dow Jones eased around 120 points on Friday.
There was still a high level of uncertainty over how much progress would be made in Switzerland, and the White House was still talking about tariffs on Chinese imports remaining at a stiff 80%. The prospect of an end in sight, however, provided lift on Friday for Tesla as well as energy and healthcare technology stocks.
Dollar: The dollar was quiet and generally a bit lower on Friday ahead of the weekend trade talks. One analyst told Reuters the currency market was beginning to price in an easing of overall trade tensions following the agreement between the United States and Britain, and the possibility that “the worst of the trade wars and tariffs is behind us.”
The dollar opened higher overall but faded late and finished modestly lower against most currencies, including 1.126 against the euro and 145.1 versus the yen. The Dollar Index was able to hang on above 100.1. The dollar also fell against the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso.
Treasuries: The bond market made no sudden moves on Friday despite the high-stakes trade talks slated to take place over the weekend. The 10-year yield was little changed late in the day at around 3.73% while the 2-year remained around 3.87% despite choppy trading. Analysts said the market was not counting on any quick agreements that would immediately open the door to an interest rate reduction.
Energies: Crude futures were higher Friday as hopes for the weekend trade talks added to bullish supply news. June WTI tacked on another dollar and was knocking on the door of $61 at the close. June gasoline topped $2.11 and diesel rose to $2.06. Along with the prospect of a trade agreement, the market reacted to a slowing decline in China’s crude imports as seasonal refinery maintenance shutdowns wrapped up.
The restoration of service at the Freeport LNG plant in Texas bumped June natural gas up to nearly $3.80 where it leveled off for the remainder of the day.
Metals: Metals were generally higher Friday as tensions between India and Pakistan remained hot heading into the weekend. Gold futures were higher at around $3,340 but the increase was relatively modest and occurred after prices had come down much of the week. Some analysts told Reuters that India’s slumping rupee was making gold less affordable in a key consumer market.
The prospects of increased trade in electronics boosted July silver to nearly $33 and supported platinum, which rose to $1,000. July copper traded in a wide outside range before settling near $4.65. China’s vaunted export economy has been faring well despite the tariff standoff with the United States.
Beijing said April export value increased 8.1% over the April 2024 level, although it was less than the 12.4% increase reported in March. Shipments of aluminum, agriculture products and fertilizer increased while exports of rare earth minerals declined 15%.
Livestock: Cattle prices remained solid with no indication of a major Friday selloff taking place. The Commitment of Traders report could differ, but the day’s trading kept live cattle and feeder contracts at 12-month highs. June live cattle finished above the $214 resistnce level but about a dollar below the 12-month high reached earlier in the day. August feeder cattle failed to push above the $303 resistance level but ended up above $300. A late rally kept June hogs above support levels at $97.
Meat production was nearly steady last week. The USDA totals for the week ending May 9 showed beef production unchanged from the previous week at 489.3 million pounds (mp) but down 6.7% from the same time last year. Pork production dipped 2.0% to 528.9 mp, which was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Cattle weights ticked up to an average of 1,437 pounds compared to 1,401 pounds a year earlier. Hog weights remained at 291 pounds, about even with 2024.
Texas A&M University cut the ribbon on its $13 million livestock reproduction facility last week. The Animal Reproduction Biotech Center located at the Rellis satellite campus covers 13,000 square feet and will be the site of research into molecular genetics tools to be used to advance livestock reproduction, including pregnancy diagnosis. The research will focus on cattle and other ruminants. University officials said the center will come online while U.S. cattle inventories are low and producers are preparing for herd expansion.
Live Cattle: Last week’s slaughter matched the previous week’s tally of 559,000. The boxed beef index was a dollar higher late last week at $342.67. The choice and select cutouts fell a couple of dollars late Friday on 102 loads, leaving choice around $346 and $14.80 above select. Cash trade was light for a Friday with prices pegged at $224 after an otherwise active week.
Feeder Cattle: The CME index moved above $296 late last week. Auctions in southwest Missouri saw steer prices $5 or more higher. Hay prices were a few dollars higher in Nebraska last week but still attractive enough to generate brisk sales at first-cutting prices of $50 per ton. Steer prices in Oklahoma were steady and heifers a few dollars higher amid good demand while packers were buying up slaughter cattle.
Lean Hogs: The slaughter last week totaled 2,437,000 compared to 2,486,000 the week before and 2,380,123 a year ago. The pork cutout posted a solid $3.33 gain late Friday and rose to nearly $98, a couple of dollars over the 5-day average. Loin and butt primals were more than $6 higher and the rib jumped $9. Friday’s cash trade was reportedly moderate at average prices above $94.
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Commitments of Traders
Spec funds were net sellers again last week, increasing their Total net short positions across our crop markets by nearly 90,000 contracts through Tuesday of last week (May 6).
The most notable change occurred in corn, where the funds reduced their net long position below +15,000 contracts for the first time since early November. Corn prices continued to decline on Wednesday and Thursday last week, so the funds were likely neutral or even slightly net short at the end of last week. With the funds in the neutral zone, it leaves plenty of room to run in either direction depending on today’s USDA numbers and news headlines related to trade and tariffs.
Also notable was the funds pushing their net short position in meal beyond -100k contracts. This was the largest net short position in meal in over 15 years.
The same can be said for wheat, spec funds continue to hold a combined net short position of more than -200k contracts in wheat (adding up Chicago, KC and Minneapolis). This is the largest combined net short position against wheat in more than 15 years.
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Commercial traders were net buyers of more than +75k Total contracts across the crop markets last week, primarily due to removing 66k contracts of short hedges against the corn market.
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Wheat Mites Making presence Known in Kansas
The relatively mild autumn on the Plains opened the door to increased risk of plant disease in Kansas this spring, particularly the Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus (WSMV), according to the Kansas Wheat Commission.
The pesky wheat curl mite is a primary vector to WSMV and other similar viruses and has already been turning up in numerous wheat fields across the Jayhawk state and, reportedly, in neighboring Oklahoma.
“It’s hard to walk in a wheat field in Kansas right now and not find at least low-level, trace-level symptoms of WSMV, and that’s pretty unusual,” said Kelsey Andersen Onofre, assistant professor of plant pathology at Kansas State University.
“If we have an extended, warm fall, like we did in 2024, it’s a perfect storm for mite populations to stay at high levels and increase later in the season,” Andersen Onofre explained. “The more populations increase, the higher the chance they will be blown by wind into neighboring fields. If the weather stays warm, we can see this spread continue over long distances.”
The upcoming winter wheat plot tours in Kansas begin May 13 and will provide a better look at how MSMV and other plant diseases are pressuring this year’s crop.
The Wheat Commission said infected plants that are now near flowering may not head out well or could also have low grain fill, leading to lower yields at the end of the day. With no effective treatment for WSMV once it is established, farmers will have to decide whether to soldier on with the crop or change horses in midstream in time to plant a fresh summer crop.
“We do not recommend spraying insecticides or miticides,” Andersen Onofre said. “There is no immediate action you can take to slow down the spread of WSMV or preserve yield in affected fields.”
The best tactic available currently is aggressive management of volunteer wheat plants, which provide a means for curl mites to hop from field to field with an assist from the prairie winds. Farmers may also consider GMO plants that are resistant to WSMV, although those are no panacea.
“We do not have any perfect resistance, Andersen Onofre said, “but variety selection is making a difference under this really high-pressure situation.”
USDA Report Estimates
The WASDE and Crop Production reports come out later today. This report will provide the USDA’s initial supply demand estimates for the 2025-26 marketing year.
The largest change is expected in domestic corn, where trade expects US new crop corn carryout to increase to about 2 billion bushels. Only small changes are expected to occur to the US or global corn and soybean supply demand tables.
US new crop wheat production is seen as smaller than the current marketing year.
Trade expects the USDA to continue to hold their South American production estimates steady again this month.
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USDA Flash Sales
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice
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120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 24,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year and 96,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
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US – Last week's observed precipitation
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European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast
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US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Brazil – Last week’s observed precipitation
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Argentina – Last week’s observed precipitation
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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CONTACT US
Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com
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