Daily Grain Plan

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800-622-7628

March 31, 2023

 

 
Corn

↑ May '23 | 6.50 1/4|+3/4

   Dec '23 | 5.67       |unch

Soybeans

↑ May'23 |14.78       |+3 1/2

↑ Nov'23 |13.04 1/2 |+1

Wheat

↓ May' 23|6.88 1/2 |-3 3/4

↑ Jul '23  |7.00 1/2 |-4

Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST.

USDA Reports Today

 

The USDA is set to release their quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Prospective Plantings reports at 11 a.m. central today. Click here to see the results later today.

Sell Signals

 

• Corn - Day 5

• KC Wheat - Day 5

• Minneapolis Wheat - Ended Day 2

 

Buy Signals

 

• None

Key Market Indicators

During the past 12 months:

 

• Corn had 7 Sell Signals lasting 16, 3, 3, 15, 6, 1, and 4 days.

• KC Wheat had 6 Sell Signals lasting 6, 7, 9, 4, 1, and 13 days.

 

It is USDA report day. Crop markets were mixed overnight, with corn and beans higher, and wheat lower. We’ll see what the USDA reports bring and how traders and the markets react later today.

 

Corn is in a Sell Signal

 

Corn remains in a 2-Box Sell Signal. Our recommendation on this corn Sell Signal is to sell old crop inventory to generate at least 30-60 days of cash flow needs and to get started with some small sales of new crop bushels.

 

The streak of daily flash sales of US corn to China (and Unknown) continued yesterday with 178,000 metric tons announced. However, the weekly export sales data revealed that there wasn’t a lot of additional buying outside of those flash sales. The weekly export sales total for corn dropped from 3 million tons to 1 million tons week to week.

 

Soybeans and meal are in the neutral zone

 

May beans have returned to the green line 20-day moving average ahead of today’s reports. November beans rose up to about the $13 mark and then turned sideways ahead of today’s data. This leaves bean prices poised to move either direction for any surprises the USDA has today.

 

Argentina is planning another “soy dollar” special exchange rate for farmers to stimulate sales.

 

Minneapolis wheat Sell Signal ended

 

Kansas City wheat is adding a day to its Sell Signal today, but Minneapolis wheat just barely slipped out of its Sell Signal overnight. If today’s report data is bullish and price resume moving higher, spring wheat could easily return to Sell Signal. Chicago wheat fell back to the green line and moved away from a Sell Signal yesterday.

 

In Kansas City wheat, we recommended making sales to cover 30-60 days of cash flow.

 

The progression of headlines related to Russian exports have had the largest impact on the wheat markets the past two weeks. The latest news that ag giants like Cargill and Viterra plan to stop exporting Russian grain this year support the theory that Russia is pushing out western companies in order to nationalize their export industries. Once the USDA data is absorbed, expect headlines to continue to influence the wheat markets.

 

 

March is going out like a lion today. Heavy snow is expected across most of South Dakota and stretching through the Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Midwest and mid-South. Check your local forecast and road conditions if you have to travel today.

Source: National Weather Service

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Sell Signal Charts (click chart to view full size)
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Good Luck to the University of Iowa women’s basketball team in their Final Four game tonight!

Regional Basis Summary

 

Click here for the Regional Basis Summary.

Markets

Hogs & Pigs report

 

Th USDA pegged the March 1 hogs and pig supply at 72.861 million head, or 100.2% of last year, matching trade expectations. Kept for breeding came in at 100.5% of last year, and market hogs came in at 100.2% of last year. Both of those measures also matched the average trade estimates.

 

The December-February pig crop came in at 100.3% of last year, well below the 101.2% average trade estimate.

 

If you would like more detailed daily information on the livestock markets, sign up for a trial of the Livestock 3-Points report.

Source: USDA, StoneX

USDA reports estimates

 

Today, the USDA will release their quarterly Grain Stocks and annual Prospective Plantings reports. The tables below summarize trade estimates for key data from the reports and past numbers for comparison.

Source: USDA, StoneX, Reuters

Recent USDA Daily Flash Sales – Corn and Soybeans

From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice

 

• None

Source: USDA, StoneX

Livestock 3-Points Newsletter

 

We now offer a daily newsletter and Sell Signals for livestock markets. Click here to receive the Livestock 3-Points free for 30-days.

Weather

U.S. – Thursday's observed percipitation

Source: NOAA

 

A powerful winter storm is moving across the central High Plains and Great Lakes today and tomorrow. Heavy snow, high winds, and dangerous travel conditions are expected.

 

In addition, widespread thunderstorms are expected across Midwest. Severe conditions, including tornados and hail are possible.

U.S. daily forecast map

Source: NOAA

GFS Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast

Source: World Ag Weather

European Model - U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast

Source: World Ag Weather

US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal

Source: World Ag Weather

U.S. 6-10 day temperature outlook

U.S. 6-10 day precipitation outlook

Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal

Source: World Ag Weather

Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal

Source: World Ag Weather

Click here for world crop weather.

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