It is USDA report day. Crop markets were mixed overnight, with corn and beans higher, and wheat lower. We’ll see what the USDA reports bring and how traders and the markets react later today.
Corn is in a Sell Signal
Corn remains in a 2-Box Sell Signal. Our recommendation on this corn Sell Signal is to sell old crop inventory to generate at least 30-60 days of cash flow needs and to get started with some small sales of new crop bushels.
The streak of daily flash sales of US corn to China (and Unknown) continued yesterday with 178,000 metric tons announced. However, the weekly export sales data revealed that there wasn’t a lot of additional buying outside of those flash sales. The weekly export sales total for corn dropped from 3 million tons to 1 million tons week to week.
Soybeans and meal are in the neutral zone
May beans have returned to the green line 20-day moving average ahead of today’s reports. November beans rose up to about the $13 mark and then turned sideways ahead of today’s data. This leaves bean prices poised to move either direction for any surprises the USDA has today.
Argentina is planning another “soy dollar” special exchange rate for farmers to stimulate sales.
Minneapolis wheat Sell Signal ended
Kansas City wheat is adding a day to its Sell Signal today, but Minneapolis wheat just barely slipped out of its Sell Signal overnight. If today’s report data is bullish and price resume moving higher, spring wheat could easily return to Sell Signal. Chicago wheat fell back to the green line and moved away from a Sell Signal yesterday.
In Kansas City wheat, we recommended making sales to cover 30-60 days of cash flow.
The progression of headlines related to Russian exports have had the largest impact on the wheat markets the past two weeks. The latest news that ag giants like Cargill and Viterra plan to stop exporting Russian grain this year support the theory that Russia is pushing out western companies in order to nationalize their export industries. Once the USDA data is absorbed, expect headlines to continue to influence the wheat markets.
March is going out like a lion today. Heavy snow is expected across most of South Dakota and stretching through the Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Midwest and mid-South. Check your local forecast and road conditions if you have to travel today.