↑ Dec'25 | 4.27 1/2 | +4 1/4
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↑ Dec'26 | 4.68 3/4 | +2 1/2
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↑ Nov'25 | 10.49 3/4 | +7
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↑ Nov'26 | 10.86 1/2 | +5
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST.
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Buy Signals
- Minneapolis Wheat - Extended Day 12
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During the past 12 months
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Corn had 9 Sell Signals lasting 4, 3, 6, 5, 1, 4, 31, 9, and 1 days.
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During the past 12 months
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Minneapolis Wheat had 10 Buy Signals lasting 4, 17, 5, 8, 2, 4, 5, 4, 20, and 2 days.
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Corn is in an Extended Sell Signal
Corn prices pushed higher on Friday despite the USDA adding another 1.4 million harvested acres and bumping ending stocks to 2.11 billion bushels. Prices have slipped since Friday but remain in an Extended Sell Signal today. We are on the sidelines waiting for higher price levels before we increase our sales recommendations.
Repeating
On this Corn Sell Signal we recommended selling a 10% increment of 2025 new crop production. There have been enough days to complete those recommended sales, so we are back on the sidelines. If corn prices can build upward momentum and push above Friday’s post-USDA high, we will recommend additional sales this week.
Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations:
2024 – 100% sold
2025 – 40% sold
Soybeans are beginning to swing into uptrend
Did you sell some 2026 soybeans on the most recent Soybean Sell Signal? While soybeans are not currently in a Sell Signal (tied to the Nov25 contract), prices are trending higher today. November beans are attempting to push up off the support of the green line 20-day moving average. November 2026 beans are trading above $10.80 again today.
On the previous Sell Signal, we recommended selling an initial 5% of your expected 2026 soybean production. If you didn’t execute those sales, consider doing it. We will likely add to those sales on the next Sell Signal.
This week, Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his US soybean yield estimate half a bushel to 52.5 bpa due to concern the warm dry weather will impact pod filling for later planted soybeans. He said, “A quick and dry end to the growing season in the eastern and southern areas is not a good way to maximize yields…Continued dryness and warmer temperatures are resulting in moisture stress in the eastern and southern locations”.
NOPA reported a record August crush of 189.8 million bushels (mbu).
Winter Wheat attempting to put in a bottom
Minneapolis wheat remains in a Buy Signal again today, while both Chicago and KC wheat trade above the 20-day average for the first time in weeks. Can winter wheat build enough upward momentum to trigger a Sell Signal? We will see what happens over the next couple of days. Following a long downward decline in prices, it doesn’t take much of an upswing to trigger the initial Sell Signal on the price rebound.
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Export inspections – good start to the year
US corn export inspections totaled 85 million bushels during the first eleven days of the new marketing year. This was more than double last year’s 41 million bushels during that span. Despite China being absent from the US soybean market, US soybean export inspections have totaled 39 million bushels during the first eleven days of the marketing year, which is a five-year high. As China buys more South American soybeans, other nations have been squeezed out and come to the US market. Read more below.
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Brazil
First crop corn planting is ramping up in Brazil as soybean planting is just getting underway. AgRural estimated the first-crop corn at 17% planted (vs. 19% last year) and soybeans at just 0.12% planted as of last Thursday.
Other
Gold is trading at another new all-time high this morning, as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the first time this year tomorrow.
Energy prices continue to chop along sideways, with WTI crude holding near $63/barrel.
Cotton and sugar prices both traded near their respective 20-day averages overnight. Rice fell to another fresh low yesterday before ending the day slightly higher. Rice is in a strong Buy Signal trading at its lowest level since 2019.
President Trump described the talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Chinese Vice Premier as very good. So far, their focus has primarily been on the ownership of TikTok, but there was enough progress made between the two sides that Presidents Trump and Xi announced they would speak on the phone Friday.
TikTok is the first step, rare earths are probably next, and then hopefully ag products can be their third deal. In the meantime, China has yet to purchase any new crop US soybeans. The USDA and Congress are reported to be working on another round of economic aid for farmers due to the ongoing trade war with China.
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Outside Markets
Equities: Continuing trade talks between the United States and China along with the countdown to lower interest rates was enough to prod the stock market higher on Monday. The S&P 500 led the way by closing above 6,600 points for the first time in its history. The Dow Jones gained about 50 points while Nasdaq rose more than 200 points. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly a year.
The stage was set for this week’s Fed meeting with the release of the Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, which showed manufacturing contracted in the state of New York last month. The index’s -8.7 reading was the lowest in three months. The report featured a sharp decline in new orders and shipments, although employment was largely steady but not expected to increase over the next six months.
Dollar: The dollar remained lackadaisical Monday with traders looking ahead to Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The Dollar Index was modestly below 97.0 late in the session and holding at the low end of last week’s consolidation range.
The dollar was little changed against the euro at 1.172 despite a downgrade of France’s debt rating over its national deficit and uncertain politics. The dollar was down against the British pound at 1.360 with the Bank of England expected to maintain its interest rates at current levels on Thursday. The Bank of Japan is also predicted to hold its rates steady on Thursday. The dollar sagged to 147.3 on Monday.
Treasuries: Treasury yields continued to soften Monday with the stage set for Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The 10-year fell as low as 4.03% but stayed away from last week’s low of 3.99% and was around 4.07% at the end of the day. The 2-year slipped to 3.53% while the 30-year was at 4.66% and just above the low for the day.
Analysts said the market remained convinced the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points this week; however, the idea of a 50-basis-point cut reportedly gained some support from last week’s soft employment data. President Trump continued to clamor for an unspecified major cut; he went to court on a Sunday to get Fed Governor Lisa Cook fired and his own man installed on the board in time for Wednesday’s vote.
Energies: Crude prices were slightly higher to begin the week as Russia’s oil sector remained under threat of Ukrainian drone attacks and new U.S. sanctions. October WTI gained about a half-dollar and closed above $63.30 after Ukraine struck a refinery in northwest Russia.
At the same time, President Trump has been threatening new tariffs on nations that import Russian crude. Meanwhile, analysts said the market was taking note of a softer U.S. jobs picture and last weekend’s unimpressive economic data out of China as signs of developing headwinds for demand.
Metals: Monday was a good day for gold as the dollar sagged along with interest rates. December gold futures again hit an all-time high of $3,724 as the market chomped at the bit for Wednesday’s anticipated rate reduction, which potentially could trigger a series of aggressive cuts as the labor market struggles. December silver broke above $43 for a 2-month high. December copper continued to take small steps higher and poked above $4.70 for the first time since late July.
Livestock: The cattle market was back in business on Monday with a sharp increase following the profit-taking seen at the end of last week. Live cattle futures were more than $4 higher with October getting back to the moving average at above $234 and December above $236. October feeder cattle were nearly $9 higher and above $357, although the sharp gain basically recovered the steep losses from Friday. Lean hogs were moderately higher on reported technical buying and remained around last week’s highs. October remained above $97 while December was solidly above $88 after a brief move above $89.
Last week left off with the WASDE report projecting lower beef and pork production due to lower slaughter. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is projected to feature a 1-2% decline in the Sept. 1 on-feed herd with August placements down 10% from a year ago and marketings down 13%.
Live Cattle: Cash prices averaged $239 and a dollar or so less than last week. Monday’s slaughter was 110,000 compared to 106,000 a week earlier. Average cattle weights last week were 2 pounds higher than the previous week at 1,417 pounds. Monday’s choice cutout was $398.53 and less than $20 premium to select.
Feeder Cattle: The CME index was down another dollar at the end of last week at $362. Corn futures retreated toward $4.20 after Friday’s boost from the USDA reports. The Oklahoma City auction reported steady prices and lower demand as winter wheat planting keeps more producers home. Prices were particularly lower for unweaned calves.
Lean Hogs: Monday’s afternoon cutout of $114.07 was slightly lower and just a few cents off the 5-day average. Monday’s slaughter of 490,000 was above last Monday’s 488,000 and 474,846 a year ago. Cash prices were higher in the Western Corn Belt and Iowa/Minnesota, raising the national average to nearly $106, while the Eastern Corn Belt was down slightly at nearly $102.
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US Crop Progress
Winter wheat planting and the early stages of corn and soybean harvests didn’t advance quite as much as expected last week.
The USDA Crop Progress report Monday also ticked the good-to-excellent ratings for corn and soybeans another percentage point lower while the spring wheat harvest nears completion.
At the same time, a developing La Niña had the outlook in the Plains and Midwest generally warm and dry. The conditions will mean plenty of opportunities for the combines to roll while crops remain mature enough to get by without much more rain.
“We are technically in a La Niña and it seems to be getting stronger,” crop economist Arlan Suderman told Roach Ag Monday. “That suggests it will be dry in the southern Plains through fall. That could create some problems with winter wheat planting, but it’s more of a wheat matter than anything else.”
Winter wheat planting increased to 11% during the week ending Sept. 14, up from 5% last week but not quite the 14% the analysts had expected to see and behind the 5-year average of 13%. In the southern Plains, Oklahoma planting was just beginning while Texas hit 13% from 5% the previous week.
The spring wheat harvest reached 94% compared to 84% the previous week and the average of 92%.
The corn harvest was at 7%, shy of the analyst estimate of 9% but in line with the average for this time of year. Crop quality lost another percentage point with 67% rated good to excellent but was still better than the 65% rating last year and better than the 66% analysts had predicted.
The quality of Iowa’s corn crop was down 1 percentage point at a still solid 79% good to excellent while Nebraska improved to 78% from 76% a week ago. Illinois also ticked higher to 58% good to excellent and Wisconsin sizzled at 81%. Ohio and Michigan both came in at 46%.
The maturity of the corn crop nearly doubled to 41% with 85% dented.
Soybeans also lost a percentage point but met expectations at 63% good to excellent. The best of the beans was found in the northwestern reaches with Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota and Nebraska above 70% good to excellent, and Wisconsin at 81%.
Corn
85% dented. Last week 74%. Avg 86%
41% mature. Last week 25%. Avg 41%
7% harvested. Last week 4%. Avg 7%
67% good to excellent. Last week 68%. Avg 58%
9% poor to very poor. Last week 9%
Soybeans
41% dropping leaves. Last week 21%. Avg 40%
5% harvested. Avg 3%
63% good to excellent. Last week 64%. Avg 59%
11% poor to very poor. Last week 10%
Spring Wheat
94% harvested. Last week 85%. Avg 92%
Winter Wheat
11% planted. Last week 5%. Avg 13%
Cotton
50% bolls opening. Last week 40%. Avg 49%
9% harvested. Last week 8%. Avg 8%
52% good to excellent. Last week 54%
14% poor to very poor. Last week 11%
Rice
61% harvested. Last week 45%. Avg 46%
Corn
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Export Inspections
Export inspections grew last week with a modest increase for corn and higher-than-predicted volumes of wheat and soybeans.
The USDA reported more than 3 million metric tons (MT) of all grains and soybeans inspected during the week ending Sept. 11 with wheat and beans roughly doubling and corn coming in at the high end of analyst expectations. In addition, sorghum inspections resumed, rising to 6,000 MT from none the week before.
Mexico and Japan continued to load up while China was completely absent from the list released on Monday. The USDA on Monday also announced the sale of 114,971 MT of corn to unknown destinations.4
Corn inspections increased last week to 1,511,691 MT from 1,443,179 MT during the prior week.
More than 916,400 MT was inspected on the Gulf Coast. Japan totaled 251,037 on the Mississippi River and had another 124,739 MT inspected in the Pacific Northwest. Mexico’s inspections in the Interior totaled 275,721 MT in addition to 144,903 MT on the Gulf Coast. Another 41,967 MT was inspected at Toledo for shipment to Ireland.
Soybean inspections jumped to 804,352 MT from 467,624 MT and pushed the total for the marketing year above 1 million MT.
While no soybean inspections for China were reported, 126,063 MT was inspected on the Gulf Coast for shipment to Italy and another 110,294 MT for Bangladesh. Mexico had 65,164 MT inspected in the Interior while the only bean cargo in the Pacific Northwest was a scant 24,000 MT for Taiwan.
Wheat inspections also exceeded expectations with a jump to 755,073 MT from 429,116 MT. Inspections for the marketing year kept pace with last year at more than 7 million MT.
The Pacific Northwest saw the highest volume of inspections last week at 431,907 MT compared to 225,521 MT on the Gulf Coast and another 97,278 MT in the Interior. Mexico had 202,728 MT inspected on the Gulf and in the Interior.
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NOPA Crush
The soybean crush finished out the 2024-25 marketing year with surge to a record high for the month of August, according to the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA).
The monthly NOPA crush report released Monday showed 189.8 million bushels (mbu) processed in August, which broke the record for the month by more than 20 mbu while also confounding analysts who had anticipated a -6.6% decline from July.
The impressive August lifted NOPA’s final total for the marketing year to a record 2.304 billion bushels, roughly in line with the USDA’s estimate and +6.0%, or around 130 mbu, higher than the previous year.
Meal production fell to 4.53 million short tons (ST) in August, a new record high for the month. The total was down from 4.64 million ST in July but above the 3.73 million ST produced a year ago.
Soybean oil stocks of 1.24 billion pounds came in short of expectations and down from 1.38 million pounds in July; however, the total was above 1.13 billion pounds a year ago.
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USDA Flash Sales
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice
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US – Monday's observed precipitation
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European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast
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US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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CONTACT US
Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com
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