↓ May'25 | 4.45 1/4 | -4 3/4
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↓ Dec'25 | 4.40 1/2 | -3 1/4
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↓ May'25 | 10.13 1/4 | -3 1/2
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↓ Nov'25 | 10.18 1/4 | -2 1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST.
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Crop Market Cruise
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Buy Signals
- Corn – Day 1
- Chicago Wheat – Day 2
- Kansas City Wheat – Day 1
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Minneapolis Wheat – Day 2
- Meal – Day 3
- Soybeans – Ended Day 1
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During the past 12 months
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Corn had 7 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, and 7 days.
- Chicago Wheat had 8 Buy Signals lasting 2, 29, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, and 8 days.
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KC Wheat had 6 Buy Signals lasting 28, 3, 6, 17, 5, and 8 days.
- Minneapolis Wheat had 8 Buy Signals lasting 3, 18, 3, 4, 4, 17, 5, and 8 days.
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Meal had 8 Buy Signals lasting 1, 28, 8, 31, 1, 3, 2, and 15 days.
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Corn and Wheat Buy Signals
Biofuel optimism helped end Soybean Buy Signal
Prices across our crop markets have cycled lower this week on tariff/trade uncertainty, barge logistics issues, and heavy widespread Midwest rains forecast next week as traders await Monday’s key USDA reports. Soyoil and soybeans received a boost yesterday following the urging from the Trump Administration for the renewable fuels industry and the oil industry to put their differences aside and work together to hammer out a framework for US biofuel policy.
Soy oil prices shot sharply higher yesterday, reversing three weeks of decline in a single day. Soybeans followed along and closed about 15 cents higher, which put soybean prices back up above the green line 20-day moving average and ended the Buy Signal in our system after just one day.
Meanwhile, corn and wheat prices all continued to slide lower to establish or test recent new lows. Corn, all three wheat classes, and meal are in Buy Signals today. Corn is being weighed down by the expectation that the USDA will sharply increase US corn acreage on Monday. Trade expects US corn acres to total 94.4 million acres. Wheat is being pressured by technical selling and the heavy net short positions of the spec funds. Headlines related to ceasefire in the Black Sea have also been a drag.
Livestock producers and grain users should be willing buyers this week. We recommend livestock producers cover feed needs for the next 60-90 days.
We’ll see if Monday’s reports provide any bullish surprises to stop the current downtrends. But also keep in mind that next week should also bring some big tariff related headlines as President Trump’s “Liberation Day” arrives on April 2nd.
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Other
Sugar and rice prices are sitting right on their respective 20-day averages this morning, perfectly in neutral territory ahead of Monday’s reports. Cotton prices reversed higher yesterday, beginning a new uptrend move today.
Crude and heating oil didn’t experience the boost on biofuel news yesterday. WTI crude continues to trade just below $70/barrel again today. Natural gas is in a Buy Signal as prices fell to their lowest level in six weeks yesterday.
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Outside Markets
The latest inflation reading came in hotter than expected. The Federal Reserves favored core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index increased 2.8% (annually) in February, above market expectations for a 2.7% increase. The core PCE measure strips out food and energy costs.
Equities: The stock market took a modest dip on Thursday after the auto industry was slapped with tariffs. The 25% levy hit auto stocks and may have dampened hopes that the big April 2 tariff package might not be as harsh as earlier promised. Wall Street refused to panic on Thursday, leaving the Dow Jones down around 150 points and Nasdaq 100 points lower; the S&P 500 dipped 19 points.
Although most automakers saw their shares decline, Tesla squeezed out a slight gain due to its percentage of domestic production shieled from tariffs; electric cars also have fewer moving parts than internal-combustion vehicles.
The U.S. GDP increased 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly higher than the previous 2.3% estimate. Personal consumption played a leading role in the expansion with a 4% increase. Initial unemployment claims were slightly lower last week at 224,000 and marginally below expectations. Recurring claims fell by 25,000.
Dollar: Thursday’s tariff developments had a modest effect on the currency market. The dollar was generally higher as traders mulled the effect the tariffs might have on inflation and the economies of the exporting nations as well as the United States. The Dollar Index was higher at 103.9 but unable to dig in after reaching 104.3 earlier in the day.
The dollar rose to nearly 1.080 against the euro as the European Commission pledged to support autoworkers that might be impacted by the potential slowdown in exports. The dollar also gained on the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, but slipped to 151.0 against the yen as interest-rate hikes remain a possibility despite the current turmoil.
Treasuries: Treasury yields ticked higher on Thursday on growing concerns over the U.S. economy. The 10-year yield moved slightly above 4.36% while the 2-year held nearly steady just shy of 4.00%.
Analysts said the day’s economic news wasn’t terrible, but it was also uninspiring in light of the potential turmoil that an escalated trade war could cause. The new U.S. tariffs on auto imports also sent Germany’s 10-year yield down to 2.78% as traders saw increased chances the European Central Bank will lower its interest rates.
Energies: Natural gas futures held their own on Thursday despite an increase in supply last week. May futures fell sharply overnight but bounced back into positive territory although they fell a dime short of $70. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that storage volumes increased 37 billion cubic feet last week, which was around what analysts had anticipated.
S&P Global reported Thursday that gas production in the Permian Basin was declining in March due to pipeline maintenance and seasonally lower spring demand, particularly in the western United States. The oil market was also in a moderately positive state on Thursday as May WTI ticked up about a dime while remaining below $70; gasoline and diesel futures were also mostly steady.
Metals: The new auto tariffs fueled the gold market on Thursday. The chances of retaliatory tariffs ramped up the appeal of gold and pushed April futures above $3,060 after hitting a 12-month high around $3,070.
Goldman Sachs this week predicted continued safe-haven demand and opportunistic speculative buying could push gold above $3,300 by the end of the year. May silver reached a 12-month high of $35.40 on continued expectations the Fed will stick to its plan to cut interest rates twice this year. May copper fell off the 12-month high established on Wednesday to nearly $5.10.
Livestock: Cattle prices remained at lofty levels despite a continuing lack of cash sales and lower weekly beef exports. June live cattle marched higher to nearly $206 while April topped $209 and made a run at the 12-month high of $211. The most-active May feeder cattle contract gained more than a dollar and pushed above $286. Some late buying Thursday sent the March contract off the board around $287.650.
Unlike cattle, the hog market found support from higher exports and brisk buying ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report. Nevertheless, June hogs still slipped lower to nearly $96 as analysts suspected packers were getting current on their hog requirements.
Live Cattle: Beef exports were down last week, and China is reportedly taking its time renewing export registrations for hundreds of U.S. plants. Reuters reported the permits expired March 16. Cash prices remained stiff at around $212 despite reported light activity. The choice cutout was steady at $338 while the boxed beef index moved higher to slightly above $328.
Feeder Cattle: Corn futures held around $4.50 Thursday and soybean meal at $294. Hay dealers in Nebraska said buyers were already stocking up as range conditions remain dry. Prices were slightly higher at the auction at Woodward, Oklahoma where most feeders were over 600 pounds and demand was moderate.
Lean Hogs: The late Thursday cutout was 80 cents lower at $94.84; bellies were down $3.70 but still above $135. Cash prices were down to $88 nationwide. The National Pork Producers Council this week urged Canada to exempt U.S. pork from retaliatory tariffs. The council said in comments to Canada’s Department of Finance that “a trade war will leave the North American pork sector weaker and more fragmented.”
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Weekly Export Sales
Export sales were lower across the board last week as 2024-25 activity wound down and advance sales for the upcoming marketing year have yet to gather momentum.
Sales for corn, soybeans and wheat were all lower during the week ending March 20 as pre-tariff buying slackened and customers continued to fill portions of their needs from unknown destinations.
The only exception to the general sales slump was pork, which surged 77% jump on solid pre-tariff purchases by Mexico.
The last USDA flash sale announcement was March 14; however, media reports Thursday said Taiwan bought 100,000 MT of U.S. milling wheat this week and South Korea was filling a 280,000 MT tender for corn.
Corn: Sales for 2024-25 remained above 1 million metric tons (MT), but not by much. The total of 1,039,600 MT was down 31% from the previous week but also unchanged from the 4-week average. Japan topped the leaderboard at 415,300 MT, although more than 248,000 MT were switched from unknown destinations. Mexico’s purchases were more solid at nearly 310,000 MT with only 55,000 MT coming from unknowns.
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Soybeans: Soybean sales edged 4% lower at 338,500 MT, which was also 28% below the 4-week average and at the low end of the range of analysts’ predictions. Mexico acquired 260,900 MT with no switches reported; China’s net of 202,300 MT included nearly 200,000 MT from unknown destinations. Sales for 2025-26 were a net reduction of 21,900 MT. Export shipments rose 56% to 922,100 MT.
Soybean meal sales were down 9% to 165,600 MT while soybean oil sales increased 30% to 44,500 MT with 16,300 MT going to Colombia and the remainder to other Latin American buyers.
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Wheat: Wheat sales for 2024-25 fell sharply to 100,300 MT, down 65% from the 4-week average but still within expectations. Japan led with 72,000 MT but the 53,400 MT sold to Nigeria included 52,000 MT from unknown destinations; another 11,200 MT were sold for 2025-26.
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Meat: Pork sales of 31,900 MT for the week jumped 77% from the previous week and were 13% above the 4-week average. Mexico’s take was 14,400 MT as tariffs continue to cloud the picture. Canada’s purchases totaled 3,300 MT. Export shipments were 4% lower at 31,600 MT, led by Mexico at 11,900 MT.
Beef sales slumped 22% to 8,000 MT and were 43% below the 4-week average. South Korea was the top buyer at 3,300 MT, including a 500 MT decrease. In fact, the week’s buyers all made reductions to their totals. Export shipments fell 8% to 14,100 MT with shipments departing to Asia, Mexico and Canada.
Others: Cotton sales were lower across all categories last week. Upland sales for 2024-25 slid 17% to 84,400 bales, which was 57% below the 4-week average. Pima sales were down 25% at 19,900 bales for 2024-25. Sales for 2025-26 included 41,600 Upland bales.
Shipments of Upland rose 12% to 393,400 bales, but Pima shipments fell to 11,900 bales. Mexico again monopolized sorghum sales at 11,200 MT. Rice sales were sharply higher at 101,700 MT and 39% over the 4-week average. Honduras and Mexico were the leading buyers. The week’s 79,000 MT in exports were all to Latin America.
Oil and Biofuels Do Mix as Trump Hands Them the Ball
The Trump administration took a drastic step this week toward clearing the view of the biofuel market this week by telling the renewable fuels industry to get to work with the oil industry to establish the next phase of the nation’s biofuels policy.
The seemingly endless haggling over blending requirements under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) may soon be a thing of the past as the two rivals have apparently found common ground on how many gallons of ethanol and other biofuels are blended annually into the nation’s fuel supply.
Trump’s fiat didn’t come out of thin air. The biofuels industry and the oil industry appeared to have made peace last month with a joint letter sent to the EPA calling for an increase in 2026 blending requirements under the RFS. “We believe strong, steady volumes for conventional biofuel targets, biomass-based diesel, and advanced fuels would more accurately reflect the availability and ongoing investments in feedstocks and production capacity," the letter said.
Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels’ Vice President of Federal Affairs, added: “Production of biodiesel and renewable diesel has doubled in the last few years, following investments in new capacity as well as in feedstock collection and processing. EPA needs to make a step-change in the RFS volumes for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels to account for proven production capacity and to support continued investment and economic growth.”
A Reuters report said the two sides have already met twice and, according to sources, agreed to recommend the EPA increase next year’s blending for biodiesel and renewable diesel from the current 3.35 billion gallons to between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons. The volume for ethanol blending was unchanged at 15 billion gallons due to projected flat demand for gasoline.
Other issues on the table for the new partnership will likely include joint input on sticky issues such as the new 45Z tax guidelines and exemptions from blending requirements for small refiners.
At the same time, the biofuels and oil industry have found a common foe in the dreaded electric vehicle (EV), a wide adoption of which could deeply slash into demand for both gasoline and biofuels. Many of the associations behind the letter to EPA also called on Congress this month to undo California’s Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, which require 100% of the vehicles sold in the state to be 100% zero emission vehicles (ZEV) by 2035.
The appeal to Congress comes as California consumers have already been turning to EVs and hybrids, more likely due to the state’s stiff gasoline prices rather than environmental concerns.
The state said this month fourth-quarter 2024 sales of ZEVs totaled 108,303, or 25% of all new vehicle sales in the quarter; sales for the full e year topped 2 million.
In addition, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said the state now had 48% more public and private EV charging stations in operation than it did gas pump nozzles. “With each quarter of sales data, one thing becomes clear: zero-emission vehicles are here to stay,” said California Energy Commission Chair David Hochschild. “Each day, more and more Californians are choosing to go electric.”
USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs
Hog supplies were slightly lower this winter, but numbers were expected to remain steady in the coming months as an increase in pigs per litter should offset an equally minor decline in farrowing.
The USDA’s Hogs & Pigs roundup for December 2024-February 2025 released Thursday afternoon reported a March 1 inventory of 74.5 million head, which was 98.8% of the tally a year ago and 1% below the previous headcount taken on Dec. 1. Analysts had expected to see the herd at 101% of the previous year.
Farrowing numbers from December through February were also below expectations at 2.89 million head, which was 99% of the year-ago total; projections for the remainder of 2025 were nearly steady other than a 1% decrease projected for the period of June through August. The number of pigs per litter, however, increased to 11.65 from 11.53 the previous year.
In addition, the USDA found the breeding inventory at 5.98 million head, or 99% of the previous year.
The market hog inventory of 68.5 million head was down slightly from a year ago and from the previous three-month period last fall.
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US Drought Monitor
A lack of widespread precipitation across the Plains and Midwest last week resulted in limited improvements to the drought situation in some regions and deterioration in others.
The U.S. Drought Monitor for the week ending March 25 was little changed from the previous week with a large percentage of the upper Midwest and Plains still locked into drought and abnormally dry conditions as planting season creeps nearer.
The Corn Belt appeared to be in better shape with limited dryness in Illinois and Indiana while Kentucky and Ohio appeared to be among the few states in the country under “normal” conditions.
The Monitor released Thursday said the March 19-20 snowfall in the Midwest provided some improvement from Iowa to Michigan, but “some areas farther north and south saw drought deterioration, most prominently across southern Missouri.”
“A patch of severe drought was introduced in southwestern Missouri, extending into neighboring areas of northwestern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma,” the report added.
Stiff, dry winds caused dust storms that added another layer of concern to parts of the southern and central Plains where winter wheat is snapping out of dormancy and grazing areas remain stressed.
The USDA said temperatures this week were climbing into the 90s as far north as Kansas, where topsoil moisture reserves have dwindled, and rainfall remains patchy and “confined to the east-central Plains.”
And, according to the Monitor map, Kansas has actually fared better than neighboring Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Texas where areas of severe drought were found.
A weather analyst told Roach Ag this week that some weather models see chances for increased precipitation in the coming week or two, but added,“we are remaining skeptical.”
“The southwest portion of the Plains will likely be stressed,” he said.
Current map
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Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, USDA
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USDA Reports Estimates
The annual Prospective Plantings and quarterly Stocks reports are due out on Monday from the USDA. The tables below summarize recent values and trade estimates of key data for those reports.
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USDA Flash Sales
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice
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US – Thursday's observed precipitation
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European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast
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US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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CONTACT US
Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com
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