↓ Jul '25 | 4.23 1/2 | -5 1/4
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↓ Nov'25 | 10.57 | -3 3/4
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↓ Jul' 25 | 5.64 3/4 | -3
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST.
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Succession Planning Webinar
In the past three years, we’ve had over 6,000 subscribers sign up for our tax planning webinar. We’ve learned that farm succession planning is also an important topic for most farm families.
In our next webinar on Wednesday June 25 at 9 AM CT, we will discuss the issues that must be addressed in a farm succession plan.
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How to overcome procrastination in succession planning
- The secret to getting the plan 80% complete
- Understanding your options
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What do I really want?
Sign up for our succession planning webinar HERE.
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Sell Signals
- Soybeans- Day 3
- Chicago Wheat - Day 2
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Kansas City Wheat - Day 2
- Minneapolis Wheat - Day 3
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Buy Signals
- Corn - Extended Day 12
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Meal - Day 5
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During the past 12 months
- Soybeans had 7 Sell Signals lasting 4, 7, 1, 9, 1, 11, and 1 days.
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Chicago Wheat had 4 Sell Signals lasting 9, 2, 11, and 2 days.
- KC Wheat had Sell Signals lasting 10, 2, 11, 1, 1, and 1 days.
- Minneapolis Wheat had 5 Sell Signals lasting 8, 7, 13, 1, and 7 days.
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During the past 12 months
- Corn had 8 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, 7, 1, and 12 days.
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Meal had 10 Buy Signals lasting 28, 8, 31, 1, 3, 2, 15, 9, 7, and 2 days.
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US bombed Iran over the weekend
President Trump ordered a military strike over the weekend that targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a presidential address following the attack, Trump said that any retaliation from Iran would be met with “force far greater” than that initial strike. This leaves traders on edge waiting to see if Iran responds with military action or signaling, they are willing to meet at the negotiation table.
Stock futures were lower overnight while crude oil prices were higher as the world waits to see if Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz where about 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply travels.
Prices across the crop markets were little changed overnight following the US military strike. Our system has Sell Signals in soybeans and wheat and Buy Signals in corn and meal.
Wheat Sell Signals
Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis wheat all remain in Sell Signals as we begin the week. Don’t miss this opportunity to make sales. Wrap up your old crop sales, if they aren’t already completed, and sell another 5% increment of expected new crop production.
If prices push higher this week, we’ll consider increasing our sales recommendations, including an initial sales recommendation for 2026 winter wheat production. The spec funds have held near record short positions in wheat recently. We won’t know of last week’s position changes until this afternoon, because the weekly Commitments of Traders report is delayed until today due to last week’s Juneteenth holiday.
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Roach Ag Winter Wheat sales recommendations:
2023 – 100% sold
2024 – 100% sold
2025 – 60% sold
Roach Ag Minneapolis Wheat sales recommendations:
2023 – 100% sold
2024 – 100% sold
2025 – 40% sold
2-Box Soybean Sell Signal
Stronger than expected EPA biofuel mandates and the surge in crude oil have helped give us this soybean Sell Signal. Don’t miss this opportunity to make sales, particularly if you have felt that you’ve been behind in sales.
We recommend wrapping up old crop sales and selling another 5% increment of expected new crop production on this Sell Signal. If prices run higher this week, we’ll bump up the new crop sales recommendation further.
If you are further behind in sales, we recommend being more aggressive on this Sell Signal to get closer to our recommended levels. Don’t miss this selling opportunity. Give us a call if you would like some marketing help.
Roach Ag Soybean sales recommendations:
2023 – 100% sold
2024 – 100% sold
2025 – 30% sold
Corn and Meal in Buy Signals
The nearby July contract fell to a new low overnight, while December corn held above last week’s low. This kept our Extended Buy Signal for corn active again today. Meal prices also slipped to new lows overnight, keeping that Buy Signal active. Livestock producers and users of corn should be eager buyers this week. Cover your needs for the next 60-90 days.
Other
Rice prices are trading near the green line 20-day moving average again today. Cotton remains in a Buy Signal, while rice prices rebounded just enough to end that Buy Signal overnight.
Energy prices were mostly higher overnight following the weekend military strike by the US on Iran’s nuclear production sites. WTI crude was trading back near $75/barrel. If Iran stops traffic in the Straight of Hormuz, energy prices are expected to shoot higher.
This morning, StoneX economist Arlan Suderman, talked to us about a storyline receiving little attention is how conflict in the Middle East (and Russia) is disrupting global fertilizer production and trade.
Russia, Iran, Qatar, Egypt, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are are the largest urea fertilizer exporters in the world.
Global nitrogen supplies have already been reduced due to conflicts in Russia and the Middle East. Russia has had natural gas production taken offline due to the ongoing war with Ukraine. Israel has also moved natural gas production offline due to their conflict with Iran. Israel provides natural gas for fertilizer production to countries like Egypt. So global nitrogen fertilizer production has already been disrupted. If war in the Middle East expands, more natural gas production could go offline, and if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, transportation of fertilizer from the region would be severely limited.
This isn't a major problem in the northern hemisphere right now, but presents a large risk to the southern hemisphere for their upcoming growing season.
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Outside Markets
Equities: The stock market ended last week quietly with little new on the Iran-Israel crisis or on the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates for guidance. The Dow Jones gained 35 points in post-Juneteenth trading while the S&P 500 fell for the third consecutive session.
Meanwhile, a Fed governor surprised the market by saying he could see interest rates coming down as early as next month as inflation remains in check and concerns remain about the labor market.
Dollar: The dollar was little changed in quiet trading Friday as traders focused on the likelihood of interest rates remaining at current levels for a while longer. The Dollar Index was down slightly on Friday at 98.2 but finished higher for the week. Against the major currencies, the dollar showed some modest strength with increases against the British pound plus the Australian and Canadian dollars. The dollar also rose to 146.0 against the yen but was mostly flat versus the euro at 1.152.
Treasuries: The prospect of an earlier-than-expected rate cut eased Treasury yields lower on Friday. The 10-year fell to around 4.37% while the 2-year lost ground to 3.90%.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks about the possibility of reducing rates before the end of summer were reinforced by Friday’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which was steady at -4.0 in for June, matching the May reading but coming in short of market expectations and indicating subdued manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Metals: Gold futures continued to settle lower on Friday amid some late profit-taking, although prices remained within reach of $3,400. Gold was on the soggy side much of the week after the Fed followed through on keeping interest rates steady while waiting for the effects of new tariffs to work their way through the economy. July silver experienced a steeper decline to a few cents above $36 while copper remained in its consolidation range around $4.80.
Livestock: Livestock futures also experienced some profit-taking Friday as traders waited for the release of the Cattle on Feed (COF) report after the close. There was also some risk removal reported as the overall financial market warily entered the weekend with Iran and Israel still exchanging blows.
The market appeared jittery overall as August live cattle fell nearly $2 and closed below $210 in an outside trading range that went as high as nearly $214 earlier in the day. August feeder cattle rallied early to nearly $308 before tailing off to below $303 and under the moving average. July hogs rose to a 12-month high slightly above $113 before backtracking slightly. This week’s updates feature the Cold Storage report on Tuesday and Hogs & Pigs the following day.
Last week’s meat production was slightly lower than the week before on lower slaughters and a decline in cattle weights. Beef production during the Juneteenth holiday week ending June 21 fell 1% to 480.1 million pounds (mp), although the total was 7.4% less than a year earlier. Last week’s slaughter was also slightly lower at 554,000 head.
Pork production eased 0.5% to 508.5 mp as the slaughter declined 0.5% to 2,365,000 head. Hog weights were steady at an average of 289 pounds while cattle weights fell 4 pounds to an average of 1,419 pounds.
Live Cattle: Cash prices were around $236 Friday despite reportedly light activity as traders waited for the COF to drop. The slaughter ended the week at 554,000 and slightly behind last week’s pace, although behind the tally from a year ago of more than 597,000. The boxed beef index was nearly $383 on Juneteenth while the late Friday choice cutout fell to $390.
Feeder Cattle: Corn futures remained around $4.30 at the end of the week while the CME index was nearly $311. The Oklahoma City auction was fairly slow last week as rainfall kept cattle numbers down and trimmed steer prices a few dollars. This week is expected to clear up but high temperatures and humidity could limit demand. Feeder prices also sagged in Texas amid moderate demand.
Lean Hogs: Cutout prices moved a few dollars higher late Friday to $122.14 compared to the 5-day average of $119.75. The rib primal led the way higher with an $8 jump above $149. Cash prices were down a couple of dollars to $110.46 nationwide while remaining above $111 in Iowa/Minnesota and the Western Corn Belt. Last week’s slaughter totaled 2,365,000, moderately below 2,375,000 the week before.
The USDA lowered its beef production forecasts for this year and raised it for 2026 while also increasing projections for both imports and exports. The monthly outlook for beef and cattle released last week lowered the beef forecast from May to 26.358 billion pounds and ratcheted next year’s production up to 25.275 billion pounds. Imports and exports for the current year were also increased due to higher U.S demand and shifting trade patterns. Cattle prices were also raised from the May outlook to an estimated $221.50 for the full year 2025.
Pork production estimates were unchanged for this year and next. Output for 2025 is still seen at approximately 28 billion pounds, 1% higher than 2024. Exports are expected to decline this year and in 2026 due to increased competition, but higher beef and chicken prices in the United States will likely support demand, even to the point that average hog prices rise above $67 this year before falling back to $64 in 2026.
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NOTE: The Commitments of Traders report is delayed until this afternoon due to last week’s Juneteenth federal holiday
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Weekly Export Sales
Export sales were generally higher and overall solid for mid-June, including a modest increase in old-crop soybean sales that beat analyst expectations while new-crop sales remained minimal as China remained out of the market amid the tariff standoff and seasonal shift to South America.
Sales for the week ending June 12 also featured downturns in rice and soybean meal sales while corn remained solid with increased sales and export shipments rising to above 1.7 million metric tons (MT).
Corn: Corn sales continued to lead the overall totals with a 14% increase in 2024-25 sales to 903,800 MT. Leading buyers including Japan, Mexico and South Korea. Sales for 2025-26 remained more modest at 155,000 MT with unknown destinations acquiring 65,000 MT followed by Mexico at 64,700 MT.
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Soybeans: Sales for 2024-25 increased noticeably from the previous week and surprised analysts with a higher-than-expected 539,500 MT. Germany led with 122,900 MT and Mexico bought 101,700 MT. Mexico also led 2025-26 sales at 57,900 MT. China was not on the week’s report. Beijing, however, said last week its overall soybean imports were a record high for May of nearly 14 million MT. Imports from Brazil far outweighed cargoes from the United States even with U.S. imports up 28% from May 2024.
Meanwhile, soybean meal sales were 25% lower at 160,300 MT with another 14,000 MT sold for 2025-26. Soybean oil sales fell to a net reduction of 1,500 MT on a 3,000-MT reduction for Costa Rica.
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Wheat: Sales for 2025-26 met expectations at 427,200 MT, including 95,500 MT sold to Taiwan. The Philippines posted a new 89,600 MT net purchase that include 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations. Unknown destinations also showed an 85,500 MT reduction.
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Meat: Pork sales were noticeably higher for the week, but beef sales were down nearly a quarter from the week before. Beef sales fell 24% to 11,700 MT, which was also 9% below the 4-week average. Pork sales improved to 28,200 MT. Mexico acquired 16,200 MT and Japan 5,000 MT.
Others: Rice sales for 2025-26 fell a sharp 80% from the prior week to 9,800 MT, a marketing-year low and 82% under the 4-week average. The rice supply has grown tight in Japan to the point that prices are reportedly becoming a developing issue in the upcoming parliamentary elections and have prompted the release of bushels from the national reserve to curb prices.
Sorghum sales fell 44% to 50,800 MT sold to Mexico. Upland cotton sales for 2024-25 rose 38% to 83,200 bales but were 23% below the 4-week average. Sales for 2025-26 were a hefty 274,900 bales sold mainly to Vietnam and El Salvador. Pima cotton sales fell to a 2024-25 marketing-year low at a net reduction of 1,900 bales; however, sales for 2025-26 totaled 6,500 bales.
Cattle on Feed
The ban on Mexican cattle imports had a greater-than-expected impact on cattle placements last month, the monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report indicated Friday.
Placements during May were significantly lower at nearly 1.89 million head, only 92% of the number from May 2024 and lower than the 94% analysts had projected. A hefty decline had been anticipated as the regular influx of feeder cattle bred in Mexico was shut off on May 11 due to the re-emergence of the dreaded Mexican screwworm in southern Mexico and remains in effect.
The sharp decline in placements along with a slightly lower number for marketings and the June 1 herd added up to a fairly bullish picture, although the report was released after Friday’s close.
Allowing imports in the first 10 days of May left placements modestly higher than the 1.6 million head recorded in April. Placements ran round 100% of May 2024 in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas – California was at 103%. At the same time, placements in Texas were only 83% of the year-ago tally. Oklahoma was only 78% of 2024 and Colorado 71%.
The report also pegged the total on-feed herd as of June 1 at 11.4 million head, 99% of last June’s count and in line with expectations. Among the major states, Kansas and Nebraska were at 103% of last year’s total while Texas was at 93% of 2024 even though the herd increased to 102% of the April total.
Marketings were also around projections at 1.76 million head, only 90% of the 2024 total. Iowa was the only state to show an increase from the prior year at 101% despite only being 84% of the April total.
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US Drought Monitor
Timely and efficient rainfall last week continued to turn drought into a virtual non-issue in most of the Midwest and large parts of the Plains.
The U.S. Drought Monitor for the week ending June 17 showed relatively few areas of drought and abnormal dryness other than a few patches in northern Illinois and in Iowa. Even Nebraska showed improvements despite still being largely covered with lower-level conditions.
“The monitoring period began with drought covering less than 9% of the Midwest,” said the report issued last Thursday. “Showers and thunderstorms chipped away at existing dryness and moderate to severe drought, although not all areas received significant rain.”
The central Plains continued to be the center of the dryness in the heartland with varying conditions covering the entire state and spilling into parts of neighboring Kansas and South Dakota. Low soil-moisture levels continued to plague some states where pasture and rangeland conditions remained in the very-poor-to-poor category.
A robust heat wave was developing over the center of the nation as the Summer Solstice arrived late last week and provided a test for livestock and developing crops; however, the overall pattern for the early part of this week shows the likelihood for continued warmer-than-normal temperatures “with an area stretching from the Southwest into the Great Lakes states having the greatest likelihood of experiencing wet weather.”
Current map
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National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, USDA
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USDA Flash Sales
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice
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US – Last week's observed precipitation
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European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast
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US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal
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Brazil – Last week's observed precipitation
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Argentina – Last week's observed precipitation
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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CONTACT US
Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com
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